Friday, October 31, 2008
Under the Radar FA
Joe Biemel - He's a left reliever who can replace Shouse and be an upgrade to Mitch Stetter. His 2.02 ERA was very impressive and he has the ability to get righties out as well. If the Dodgers are going to throw tons of money at guys like Sabathia and Manny, maybe he slips through the cracks.
Felipe Lopez - I know I mentioned him in an earlier post, but I am very big on him being a Brewer. He was stuck in Washington for a couple of years, but he batted .385 while playing 6 positions after being traded to the Cardinals. That's the kind of depth and versatility that Championship teams have. He could be insurance at all of the infield positions and play the outfield in a pinch.
Joe Crede - A one year deal could be the perfect situation for Crede and the Brewers. It's a no risk move and you could be getting a fantastic third basemen defensively with a powerful bat when healthy. He could be a stopgap before either one of the Brewers young third basemen are ready or JJ Hardy is moved to third to make room for Escobar.
Mark Kotsay - Showed in the playoffs the ability to play multiple positions. Played both center field and first base and played first pretty well. At 33, he will probably come relatively cheap, especially if the Brewers don't resign Gabe Kapler.
Jon Garland - With all the talk about CC being showered with money by all of the big market teams, the Brewers may have to look at a backup plan. Garland would be a solid 3 guy behind Gallardo and Parra.
Also maybe consider: Mark Prior, Oliver Perez, Freddy Garcia
In my opinion, stay away from: Casey Blake, Mike Cameron, Paul Byrd, Mark Loretta
Prince Trade Idea of the Day - Say that the Yankees don't land Mark Texiera and cut ties with Jason Giambi. They could be in the market for a 1B/DH type. How about Prince Fielder to the Yankees in exchange for Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy (assuming you can't wrange Phil Hughes from them) and either another prospect or a guy like Wilson Betemit. That a young pitcher with tons of upside, an outfielder with loads of talent who may just need a change of scenery and a utility player to take the place of Counsell/Dillon.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Initial Impressions of the 2008-09 Milwaukee Bucks
- Michael Redd does not play defense. This is not a new fact, but you can see early that guys are making a conceited effort to play hard on the defensive end. Redd is a liability. He loses sight of the ball and doesn't committ to that side of the floor. I've seen him on at least two different occasions not get back all the way on defense either.
- While I'm ripping Michael Redd, I will throw out that through the first 20 possessions, he hasn't made a pass yet I don't think. I understand that he is a great shooter, but the Bucks cannot be a great or even good team without getting everyone involved, have everyone feel that they are a part of what they are doing on the offensive end. Redd dribbles into traffic, forces shots consistently and ruins the flow of the offense. The problem is that he makes shots, but I feel like they are at a cost to the team. To make matters worse, I think he's a good passer. I think if his scoring average fell to 16 a game this year, it would be a positive for the Bucks.
- Andrew Bogut plays hard. He was well worth the contract extension and while he may not seem like he panned out as a number one pick, he certainly is one of the building blocks for this team going forward and was a solid, if not spectacular pick. He needs to be more involved offensively. He has to work so hard to get any shots for himself. Run the offense through him from time to time.
- In a very small sample so far, good things seem to happen when Malik Allen is on the floor. Garbage buckets and defensive stops so far since he's been on the floor. He seems to be able to move to the right place for dumb-offs on penetration. Charlie V is a talented offensive player, the two might be a very good combination. Might be interesting to see them on the floor at the same time. My only complain about Allen is his quickness. He is getting beat to a lot of balls by Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah. I'm assuming that's one of the things that has kept him from being a regular rotation guy for other teams. Hopefully his effort and intensity rub of on Villanueva and Alexander and those better athletes can develop and play with that kind of intensity.
- Interesting that Luc Richard M'bah Moute is the first rookie off of the Bucks bench. If that isn't an indication that Skiles is committed to get this team to play defense, I don't know what is. A lot of people seem to have labeled this kid as a defensive genius, even comparing him to Bruce Bowen. Let's give him a little time before we do that. He just picked up his second defensive three second call, so it looks like the learning curve is steaper than people thought. He certainly hasn't looked shy on the offensive end. He's taken open jump shots and looked to penetrate from time to time, including a couple of nice moves in the paint. He looks very much like a rookie tonight making some great plays and making some very dumb mistakes as well. But the upside definately looks to be there.
- I think one of the frustrating things watching the Bucks last year was their lack of toughness. It looks like Allen and Richard Jefferson might help with that.
- The Bucks were better in the first quarter as more subs came in. Allen, M'bah Moute, Lue gave good minutes. Obviously it's early, but maybe the bench is more solid than the "experts" say it is.
- They haven't been rewarded for it yet, but they seem to be trying to take a lot of charges. That's a good sign. I think that's a big indicator of a team's toughness. Watch a team when one of their player's take a charge. If all of them are going to pick him up, patting him on the butt, and picking up their intensity, that is a good sign that a team is buying into that toughness mentality. It's the 6:57 mark in the second quarter and the Bucks have tried to take four charges. Two of them should have been for sure, if not more. It hasn't stopped as the game goes on either. They have continued to try and have been rewarded with one or two charges. The bench seems to be on their feet when it happens which is a good sign.
- I think a lot of people were misled by Ramon Sessions big assist night last year and believing that he was ready to be a point guard in this league. If the first 8 minutes of Tyronn Lue's play tonight doesn't tell you that it's ok to leave him on the bench to develop longer, then watch closer.
- Quick Bulls note... Luol Deng is really good
- Michael Redd continues to be a black hole... Jefferson and Redd have both taken 9 shots so far in this game, but to me it just feels like Jefferson's have been more in the flow of the game. Redd has taken 9 shots because he wanetd to take 9 and RJ has taken 9 that have come to him.
- So far, way too many fouls. A lot of them are dumb reach fouls as well. I can handle the ones where they are one step out of position because they're working on getting it right, but a lot of them are just dumb. Those have to be eliminated.
- Dan Gadzuric gave some good minutes in the first half. He's banged a few jumpers, blocked a couple shots and grabbed a few rebounds. He will be a serviceable backup if he can continue to knock down those 12 foot jumpers.
- Right away to start the second half, Redd spotted up on the perimeter and let someone else do the dribbling and setting up the offense. And he drilled three threes. If he let's that happen, he could be deadly and the Bucks could be tough to defend.
- They look like they are going to make a concerted effort to get the ball down in the post. These guys are such better shooters on kick outs. Run the offense through Bogut and good things will happen. Not only that, but it creates opportunities to get other bigs in foul trouble and take them out of their game plan. I feel like the Bucks on the last couple of years would have that idea, but they would go away from it as the game went on. A big part of that was Redd and Mo Williams and their dribbling shows and forced shots they had a tendancy to do.
- I haven't talked at all about Luke Ridnour yet. To this point, I feel like it's good to see a point guard who doesn't need shots to validate himself on the floor. Of course he needs to take them when he's open, which he's doing, but he isn't forcing anything, he's running the offense which is what a point guard should do. He has turned the ball over more than you like to see though. I'm sure it will take some time to get on the same page with his teammates and those numbers should go down.
- A forced three by Redd without making one pass and an immediate hook from Scott Skiles. I hope that is the reason he was pulled from the game. If it was, great coaching.
- To this point there seems to be less defensive breakdowns or wasted defensive possessions like we got so accustomed to seeing last year. It will be interesting to see as the possessions get more intense to see if the Bucks can get stops when they need it. There seems to be hands getting into shooters faces. Over the long run, hands in faces on shots, will result in a lower opponent shooting percentage. That wasn't the case all the time tonight, the Bulls got red hot for a stretch. I think there were closeouts and hands up, but not enough.
- The intensity of the game picked up with about 3 minutes left in the third quarter. It seems to me like the Bulls raised it and the Bucks weren't able to match it. Their offense got very rushed and out of sync and the Bulls beat them to a lot of loose balls. As I type, Ridnour re-entered the game to try to control it. Immediately they pound it back in to Bogut and good things happen.
- Dumb fouls killed the Bucks tonight. Not only was their a wide margin of scoring at the free throw line, but it's kept the regulars off of the floor. They needed Bogut and Jefferson on the floor, but couldn't use them because of their foul trouble. Like I said, hustle fouls are fine, but reach fouls and out of position fouls can't be tolerated going forward. By the time they got back on the floor, they couldn't match the intensity the Bulls were playing with and as a result, they got run off of the floor.
- Michael Redd was 7-7 on catch and shoots in the flow of the offense or on rebound kick-outs for 19 points. He was 3-12 for 6 pointes when he tried to create his shot himself.
- Game one is a loss. For two and a half quarters, the Bucks seemed like the could compete, but they just couldn't match Chicago's intensity from that point forward. It didn't help that the Bulls made everything. I think there were some positive signs for the Bucks, but it's obvious they have a long way to go. They had some good defensive possessions, I'd say more than we're used to seeing. Offensively, they have a long way to go. They can't foul as much as they did obviously and I'm sure that will be addressed. I saw enough good things to watch them again tomorrow night. I'm on a game to game basis this year. I think it only took me about 12 games to stop watching them last year, but I have a feeling i will get much deeper into the year this year.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Off-Season Preview - Milwaukee Brewers
1. Trade JJ Hardy. The Orioles need a shortstop and seemed interested in Hardy around the trade deadline. The Orioles have a lot of young arms set to arrive late in 2009 or 2010. Some of their young arms have already made it to the bigs with mixed success. They may be willing to deal a guy like Radhames Liz or Garrett Olson. I think the first choice would be Jeremy Guthrie, but I don't know if that is reasonable for just Hardy. Throw in Melvin Mora who has been the talk of trades for years, along with Geroge Sherrill who was fantastic in the first half of last year but struggled a bit in the second half but could be another left handed arm at the back of the bullpen that the Brewers need. That would clear the way for Escobar to play shortstop for the Brewers.
2. Trade Prince Fielder. I loved the rumor that has been going around for last part of the season about the Brewers sending Fielder to the power starved San Francisco Giants for Matt Cain, another young arm with worlds of potential. All of a sudden a pitching staff in question becomes one of the most dangerous young rotations in baseball. Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Matt Cain, Radhames Liz and Dave Bush. You still have Jeff Suppan, Chris Capuano (possibly) and Seth McClung if any of those young guns struggle or if you want to work Liz out of the bullpen or start him AAA.
3. Say Goodbye to Mike Cameron and Craig Counsell. I think the two have their purposes, but not at the prices they would command. Counsell has a lot of good at-bats but as his .220 average shows, not enough of them end in hits.
4. Resign Eric Gagne. He wasn't as bad as people made him out to be last year. I think what irritated Brewer fans was that he was doing that with a 10 million dollar salary. Sign him back for 2 years at 5 million or so and that's a pretty good price for what he brings. A bullpen of Torres, Mota, Gagne, Villanueva, Stetter, Sherrill, Liz (assuming he isn't in the rotation) and McClung doesn't sound too bad. Keep in mind that doesn't include David Riske who's health affected his performance last year and could return to his American League form with the Royals.
5. After looking at all of that, I have brought in some young arms, bullpen help and a better third base option. The other key thing is kept payroll very low. Why did I do that? So number 6 can happen....
6. Sign Mark Teixera. You were willing to spend the money on CC, why not on a young 1B who is fantastic at the plate and on the field. I really don't think it's as far fetched as it sounds. I'll show you below.
7. This off-season plan has the Brewers getting younger once again. Some veteran presence around, but continuing with that trend, I think it's Mat Gamel time. I don't love the idea of guys always changing positions, but I say do it one more time. Gamel will never be a 3B. Move him to Right Field. He's an athlete like Braun was, with a good arm, and right field could be perfect for him. Obviously you would need Corey Hart to move to center which it seems was the Brewers plan for him eventually anyway.
That leaves the roster looking like this...
1B Mark Teixera
2B Rickie Weeks
SS Alicdes Escobar
3B Melvin Mora
LF Ryan Braun
CF Corey Hart
RF Mat Gamel
C Jason Kendall
Bench
IF Bill Hall - See if the super sub role can re-energize his career.
OF Gabe Kapler - an invaluable guy who can play any outfield position
1B/RF Brad Nelson - Showed in September that he could bat off the bench
C - Angel Salome - If Kendall is going to be effective again next year, he will need more time off. Spelling him once a week with the Brewers future backstop could be a great learning experience for the youngster
IF -I would love if this spot was filled by Felipe Lopez of the St. Louis Cardinals. He could back Escobar up at Short and provide insurance if Weeks struggles again at 2B.
Starting Rotation
1 Yovani Gallardo
2 Manny Parra
3 Matt Cain
4 Dave Bush
5 Suppan/Capuano (if healthy)
Bullpen
Closer - Salomon Torres
Set up - Geroge Sherrill
Set up - Eric Gagne
Lefty Specialist - Mitch Stetter or Brian Shouse
Middle Relief - Carlos Villanueva
Middle Relief - Guillermo Mota/Todd Coffey
Middle Relief - David Riske
Long Relief - Seth McClung
(Radhames Liz starts in AAA working on his control)
I think that looks like a pretty solid team. You have made your lineup more balanced with right and left along with contact hitters and power hitters. The obvious thing missing is a true leadoff hitter. Unless Escobar can be that guy. The rotation has been overhauled with young, talented arms. If there is any question if you can win with a staff of young pitchers, watch the Rays... One more note, the Brewers, by not signing CC or Ben Sheets recieve two supplemental draft picks for sure. They also could recieve a first round pick from the team who signs that player if they are in the upper 15 teams recordwise in the league. If either are signed by a team with one of the top 15 picks, those picks are protected and the Brewers would recieve their second round pick. That means at worse, the Brewers would have 5 picks in the top 60 of the next draft. Not bad compensation.
So let's look at how this works out financially
C - Jason Kendall - $4.6MMillion
C - Angel Salome - $400 K
1B - Mark Texiera - $20 Million
2B - Rickie Weeks - $2.5 Million*
SS - Alcides Escober - $400 K
3B - Bill Hall - $6.8 Million
3B - Melvin Mora - $9 Million
SS - Alicdes Escobar - $400K
LF - Ryan Braun - $745K
CF - Corey Hart - $4.5 Million*
1B - Brad Nelson - $450 K
IF - Felipe Lopez - $3 Million*
OF - Gabe Kapler - $2 Million*
SP - Yovani Gallardo - $404K
SP - Dave Bush - $3.7 Million*
SP - Manny Parra - $400K
SP -Jeff Suppan - $12.5MM
SP - McClung - $750K+
SP - Matt Cain - $2.65 Million
RP - David Riske - $4.25 Million
RP - Salomon Torres - $3.75 Million
RP - Carlos Villanueva - $413K
RP - Mitch Stetter - $400K
RP - George Sherrill - $980K
RP - Todd Coffey - $925K
RP - Eric Gagne - $2.5 Million
Other commitments: Craig Counsell - $400K buyout, Chris Capuano - $3.75MM
*These are best guesses of free agent contract numbers along with arbitration raises to elgible players. I tried to error on the high side if anything.
By my calculations, that brings the payroll committments to $88.9 million give or take. That leaves money to account for raises next year to Braun, along with the financial flexibility to sign guys like Gallardo, Cain, Parra, Weeks, Hart to extensions along with impending raises to other players as well.
More young talent, better defense, more balanced lineup, reinforced bullpen, more financial flexibility. World Series.
Probably in 2010.
What do you think?