Everyone wants the Brewers to resign CC Sabathia. I would love to see him pitch again for the Brewers as well. But what would the Brewers look like if they didn't resign him? Here are a few ideas...
1. Trade JJ Hardy. The Orioles need a shortstop and seemed interested in Hardy around the trade deadline. The Orioles have a lot of young arms set to arrive late in 2009 or 2010. Some of their young arms have already made it to the bigs with mixed success. They may be willing to deal a guy like Radhames Liz or Garrett Olson. I think the first choice would be Jeremy Guthrie, but I don't know if that is reasonable for just Hardy. Throw in Melvin Mora who has been the talk of trades for years, along with Geroge Sherrill who was fantastic in the first half of last year but struggled a bit in the second half but could be another left handed arm at the back of the bullpen that the Brewers need. That would clear the way for Escobar to play shortstop for the Brewers.
2. Trade Prince Fielder. I loved the rumor that has been going around for last part of the season about the Brewers sending Fielder to the power starved San Francisco Giants for Matt Cain, another young arm with worlds of potential. All of a sudden a pitching staff in question becomes one of the most dangerous young rotations in baseball. Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Matt Cain, Radhames Liz and Dave Bush. You still have Jeff Suppan, Chris Capuano (possibly) and Seth McClung if any of those young guns struggle or if you want to work Liz out of the bullpen or start him AAA.
3. Say Goodbye to Mike Cameron and Craig Counsell. I think the two have their purposes, but not at the prices they would command. Counsell has a lot of good at-bats but as his .220 average shows, not enough of them end in hits.
4. Resign Eric Gagne. He wasn't as bad as people made him out to be last year. I think what irritated Brewer fans was that he was doing that with a 10 million dollar salary. Sign him back for 2 years at 5 million or so and that's a pretty good price for what he brings. A bullpen of Torres, Mota, Gagne, Villanueva, Stetter, Sherrill, Liz (assuming he isn't in the rotation) and McClung doesn't sound too bad. Keep in mind that doesn't include David Riske who's health affected his performance last year and could return to his American League form with the Royals.
5. After looking at all of that, I have brought in some young arms, bullpen help and a better third base option. The other key thing is kept payroll very low. Why did I do that? So number 6 can happen....
6. Sign Mark Teixera. You were willing to spend the money on CC, why not on a young 1B who is fantastic at the plate and on the field. I really don't think it's as far fetched as it sounds. I'll show you below.
7. This off-season plan has the Brewers getting younger once again. Some veteran presence around, but continuing with that trend, I think it's Mat Gamel time. I don't love the idea of guys always changing positions, but I say do it one more time. Gamel will never be a 3B. Move him to Right Field. He's an athlete like Braun was, with a good arm, and right field could be perfect for him. Obviously you would need Corey Hart to move to center which it seems was the Brewers plan for him eventually anyway.
That leaves the roster looking like this...
1B Mark Teixera
2B Rickie Weeks
SS Alicdes Escobar
3B Melvin Mora
LF Ryan Braun
CF Corey Hart
RF Mat Gamel
C Jason Kendall
Bench
IF Bill Hall - See if the super sub role can re-energize his career.
OF Gabe Kapler - an invaluable guy who can play any outfield position
1B/RF Brad Nelson - Showed in September that he could bat off the bench
C - Angel Salome - If Kendall is going to be effective again next year, he will need more time off. Spelling him once a week with the Brewers future backstop could be a great learning experience for the youngster
IF -I would love if this spot was filled by Felipe Lopez of the St. Louis Cardinals. He could back Escobar up at Short and provide insurance if Weeks struggles again at 2B.
Starting Rotation
1 Yovani Gallardo
2 Manny Parra
3 Matt Cain
4 Dave Bush
5 Suppan/Capuano (if healthy)
Bullpen
Closer - Salomon Torres
Set up - Geroge Sherrill
Set up - Eric Gagne
Lefty Specialist - Mitch Stetter or Brian Shouse
Middle Relief - Carlos Villanueva
Middle Relief - Guillermo Mota/Todd Coffey
Middle Relief - David Riske
Long Relief - Seth McClung
(Radhames Liz starts in AAA working on his control)
I think that looks like a pretty solid team. You have made your lineup more balanced with right and left along with contact hitters and power hitters. The obvious thing missing is a true leadoff hitter. Unless Escobar can be that guy. The rotation has been overhauled with young, talented arms. If there is any question if you can win with a staff of young pitchers, watch the Rays... One more note, the Brewers, by not signing CC or Ben Sheets recieve two supplemental draft picks for sure. They also could recieve a first round pick from the team who signs that player if they are in the upper 15 teams recordwise in the league. If either are signed by a team with one of the top 15 picks, those picks are protected and the Brewers would recieve their second round pick. That means at worse, the Brewers would have 5 picks in the top 60 of the next draft. Not bad compensation.
So let's look at how this works out financially
C - Jason Kendall - $4.6MMillion
C - Angel Salome - $400 K
1B - Mark Texiera - $20 Million
2B - Rickie Weeks - $2.5 Million*
SS - Alcides Escober - $400 K
3B - Bill Hall - $6.8 Million
3B - Melvin Mora - $9 Million
SS - Alicdes Escobar - $400K
LF - Ryan Braun - $745K
CF - Corey Hart - $4.5 Million*
1B - Brad Nelson - $450 K
IF - Felipe Lopez - $3 Million*
OF - Gabe Kapler - $2 Million*
SP - Yovani Gallardo - $404K
SP - Dave Bush - $3.7 Million*
SP - Manny Parra - $400K
SP -Jeff Suppan - $12.5MM
SP - McClung - $750K+
SP - Matt Cain - $2.65 Million
RP - David Riske - $4.25 Million
RP - Salomon Torres - $3.75 Million
RP - Carlos Villanueva - $413K
RP - Mitch Stetter - $400K
RP - George Sherrill - $980K
RP - Todd Coffey - $925K
RP - Eric Gagne - $2.5 Million
Other commitments: Craig Counsell - $400K buyout, Chris Capuano - $3.75MM
*These are best guesses of free agent contract numbers along with arbitration raises to elgible players. I tried to error on the high side if anything.
By my calculations, that brings the payroll committments to $88.9 million give or take. That leaves money to account for raises next year to Braun, along with the financial flexibility to sign guys like Gallardo, Cain, Parra, Weeks, Hart to extensions along with impending raises to other players as well.
More young talent, better defense, more balanced lineup, reinforced bullpen, more financial flexibility. World Series.
Probably in 2010.
What do you think?
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3 comments:
I like your indepth analysis of the club. However, I do believe that Hardy will remain a Brewer for years to come. His play in the post season assured me of this.
Brewers could also have their eyes set on Adrian Beltrae of the Mariners. New GM (ex-Brewer Scoutman) Jack Zduriencik has some decisions to make on him as it is his final year on the contract. This according to MLB Rumors.
Boston Globe has also mentioned the Brewers name as suitors for K-Rod (hate that name).
Also, Tom Haudicourt (jsonline) told ESPN 540 (milw) that Macha has been selected as the new Brewer skipper! Great news.
I'm not saying I want to see JJ go, because I really don't, but eventually, you have to find a spot for Escobar. JJ at third with his power numbers isn't as special as JJ at short with his power numbers. He's a top 5 power hitting shortstop and at third he's middle of the road at best.
I haven't seen anything about the Beltre rumors, and I don't like it. He's Bill Hall but twice the money.
The Brewers won't sign K-Rod, I can guarantee that, not if they're going to sign CC at least.
One other trade of Prince that would intrigue me would be something like Melky Cabrera, Wilson Betemit and one of either Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy. I don't know if the Yankees are as opposed to trading them as they were last off-season. I think that would be a good package. Cabrera needs a change of scenery out of New York, Betemit is a solid bench guy to replace Counsell and then a young, talented arm like Kennedy or Hughes is major league ready to step in next year...
The Brewers will not sign CC. I just came to terms with that, emotionally. The Yanks are licking their chops because our 4 year-100MM planned offer is chump changed compared to what they will offer. The Crew would have to get clever and offer some sort of ownership, which was the rumor going around down at Miller Park and sport radio during the wild card series.
The worse thing the Crew could do is bring up Gamel and Escobar to play on a regular basis, at the same time. They need to stop "building" the future and live in the now....man. Start trading away these prospects and bring in some rentals. That's the ONLY way we will ever see baseball played in October at Miller Park. Look how long it's taken Milwaukee to get where it's at with this corps of players who were brought up through the farm. Hall, Weeks, and some can argue Hart have been a waste of time. Now what? Reload and live through some more growing pains? yikes Kosi. Yikes.
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